Catching falling knives futures style is one of those lessons you pay for over and over. ES dropped 160 handles on Wednesday (March 18). From 6814 to 6654. Straight down.
And I know – I *know* – some of you bought every single dip on the way down.
Don’t lie. I’ve done it too. ES drops 40 points and your brain goes “okay that’s gotta be the bottom.” So you get long. Then it drops another 30 and you’re sitting there staring at your screen wondering why you thought 6780 was support when literally nothing was holding.
Why Catching Falling Knives Futures Gets Expensive
NQ was even worse on Wednesday. 25210 to 24565. That’s 645 points. On a random Wednesday. No major catalyst, no Fed meeting, just the market doing what it does when everyone’s leaning the same direction and the rug gets pulled.
I used to be the guy who’d see ES drop 80 handles and think “discount.” Like I’m at Costco shopping for longs. That cost me about $4,200 over two weeks back in 2023 before I figured out that catching falling knives in futures isn’t a strategy. It’s a coping mechanism.
The logic feels so clean in real time though. “ES is down 100 points, it HAS to bounce.” No it doesn’t. It doesn’t have to do anything. The market owes you nothing. I learned that the expensive way.
What To Do When ES Drops 160 Handles
So what do you actually do on a day like Wednesday March 18?
Nothing. Seriously. If you didn’t get short before it tanked, you missed the move. That’s fine. There’s another setup on Thursday. But buying into a 160-handle selloff because “it’s oversold” is how you turn a flat day into a $2K loss.
Two things I remind myself on days like this..
First – the bounce, when it comes, is usually violent and fast. You won’t time it. The algos will get the bottom tick, not you. And if you’re already underwater from catching three knives on the way down, you won’t even have the margin to catch the actual reversal.
Second – your P&L doesn’t know you were “right about the direction eventually.” It only knows you entered at 6780 and ES went to 6654 before you panic closed. Being right later doesn’t fix being wrong now.
Watched ES bounce about 10 points off the low Wednesday evening. Bet somebody took that as confirmation they were smart. Give it a day.
If you traded Wednesday clean – short or flat – respect. If you caught a knife or four, join the club. Just don’t pretend it was a plan. Catching falling knives futures sessions like Wednesday is how accounts die slowly.
Size down Thursday. The volatility isn’t leaving.
For more takes like this, check out [previous posts on PropWhisperer](https://propwhisperer.com) or read about [trading psychology on Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/trading-psychology.asp).