Overtrading data days is my biggest weakness. Yesterday had ADP and ISM Services both dropping at different times. After years of trading these releases, you’d think I’d sit the first 15 minutes out.
Nope.
Why I Keep Overtrading Data Days
Took three trades before 10:30am. Lost on all three.
The whipsaws on ES futures were brutal. We went from 6900 to 6930 back to 6910 in 40 minutes. However, every bounce looked like “the move.” None of them were.
My best trade? The one I took at 2pm. I finally stopped caring about the data and just followed price. Therefore, that boring 10-point scalp on ES actually worked.
Here’s what kills me: the action LOOKS tradeable. You see ES spike 20 points. Your brain screams “that’s the breakout!” Then it reverses. Consequently, you’re underwater before you even move your stop.
The 30-Minute Rule for Data Day Trading
I’ve got this rule now (that I keep breaking): if there’s data at 10am or 2pm, wait 30 minutes. Not 15. Not 20. Thirty full minutes.
Why? Let the algos finish freaking out. Let the real direction show up.
Did I follow it yesterday? Course not. As a result, it cost me $400 to re-learn what I already knew.
The dumb part? I KNOW this. I’ve got it written down. Moreover, I’ve told other people not to do it. But when NQ is ripping 100 points in five minutes, my fingers just start clicking.
How Overtrading Data Days Plays Out
It’s the same pattern every time. First, data hits. Second, market spikes one way. Third, it reverses. Then spikes again.
Finally, it chops around for 20-30 minutes while the algos figure things out. Then around 10:30 or 3pm? It picks a direction and actually moves.
But I can’t help myself. I see that first spike and I’m in. Out with a loss. See the reverse and think “okay THIS is the real move.” In again. Wrong again.
The worst part? I usually nail it after I’ve already blown through my daily risk limit. Like yesterday – that 2pm trade would’ve been perfect if I’d just waited.
Clean entry. Clean exit. Exactly what I was looking for all morning.
But by then I was already down $400 from being impatient.
When Will I Actually Learn?
You’d think 47 lessons would be enough to fix this habit. Apparently not.
Anyone else struggle with this? Or is that just me being an idiot again.
Related: If you’re working on a prop firm evaluation, this kind of discipline is critical. One bad data day can blow your eval. Check out more trading psychology posts to avoid these costly mistakes.