CPI drops Tuesday. ES is sitting at 6991 right now. And if you’re planning on trading CPI like it’s a normal session, good luck with that.
Last time we had major data (NFP on Feb 6), I watched three traders blow their daily limit before lunch.
Want to know what kills accounts when trading CPI or other econ data? It’s not the setup. It’s not the direction. It’s the gap between what you planned to do and what you actually do when ES moves 30 points in four minutes.
What Happened Last NFP
Employment numbers came out. ES was hanging around 6850. I had my plan: wait fifteen minutes, let the dust settle, then look for a retest.
Know what I did instead?
Took a long at 6863 ninety seconds after the print. No confirmation. No pullback. Just FOMO because NQ was ripping and I didn’t want to miss it.
Stop was at 6848. Reasonable, right? ES dropped to 6842 in six minutes.
$750 gone. And the kicker? Price reversed twenty minutes later and hit my original target at 6880.
I literally paid $750 to learn a lesson I already knew.
Trading CPI vs trading ES on a normal day? Two completely different games.
Here’s my CPI trading setup for Tuesday:
ES is trading 6921-6998 today. I’m marking 6900 as key support. If CPI comes in hot and we break below that, I’m looking for 6850.
If it comes in cool? 7020 is the level. Clean breakout above 7000 with volume, I’m in.
But here’s the thing..I’ve been wrong on CPI four times in a row. Not wrong on direction. Wrong on timing.
I’ll nail the setup, get the direction right, but exit too early because the first pullback spooks me. Or I’ll wait for confirmation and miss the entire move.
Trading CPI isn’t about being right. It’s about not being stupid.
Risk management that actually works:
The traders who survive data days aren’t the ones with perfect entries. They’re the ones who don’t blow up when they’re wrong.
Here’s what actually works:
Cut your size in half. If you normally trade 4 contracts, trade 2. The move will be big enough.
Set your stop before the print. Not after you see price action. Before. Write it down. Honor it.
If you miss the first move, let it go. The second wave is cleaner anyway. Less whipsaw, better structure.
And if you’re trading a prop firm evaluation with static drawdown, remember your max loss doesn’t change. A $600 hit on CPI day is the same as three $200 losing days. Choose wisely.
Why staying flat is fine:
You know what’s profitable when trading CPI? Not losing money.
CPI is one day. One print. If you sit it out completely, the market will still be here Wednesday.
I’ve had my best months when I skipped the big data days. Not because I’m scared. Because I’m honest about what I’m good at.
I’m good at reading structure. I’m good at patience. I’m not good at reacting to headlines in real-time without overthinking.
Last CPI I made $200. Two trades, both small. Boring as hell.
Month before that? Lost $1,400 trying to be a hero.
Guess which month I felt better about?
Tuesday morning:
ES opens at 8:30am. CPI prints at 8:30am. First fifteen minutes will be chaos.
If you trade it, trade small. If you sit it out, don’t feel bad about it.
And if you do what I did last NFP and break every rule you set for yourself..well, at least you’ll have a story for next time.
Don’t do anything stupid. Or do. I’m not your risk manager.