NFP trading is my kryptonite.
It’s NFP day and I already know what’s going to happen. I’m going to take 8 trades when I should take 2. The numbers hit at 5:30am PST. I’ll be glued to the screen until 8am, probably down $180 on an account that was green before the number dropped.
ES sitting at 6805 right now. NQ at 24546. Both look calm but we all know what’s coming in a few hours.
The NFP Trading Pattern I Can’t Break
Here’s what SHOULD happen:
– Wait for the 8:30am EST print
– Let the first 2-minute candle finish (the fake-out move)
– Enter on the real direction with a 15-point stop
– Take profit at 25-30 points
– Walk away
Here’s what ACTUALLY happens:
– I’m in 30 seconds before the number (because “what if I miss it”)
– Stopped out on the whipsaw ($65 gone)
– Revenge trade the bounce ($65 gone)
– “It’s definitely going up now” ($65 gone)
– Finally catch the real move ($130 profit)
– Give back $80 trying to catch the second leg that never comes
Net result? Up $50 when I could’ve made $200 with one clean trade.
Why NFP Trading Breaks Everyone
Nonfarm Payrolls is the most traded report every month. It has a 90% fake-out rate on that first candle.
The market LOVES to run stops both ways before picking a direction. ES will spike 20 points up, hit everyone’s buys. Then reverse 35 points down, hit everyone’s sells. THEN actually trend.
I know this. I’ve seen it 47 times. I STILL trade the first spike like an idiot.
What Actually Works for NFP Trading
The traders who make money on NFP do this:
– They don’t touch the first 5 minutes
– They wait for a retest of the initial spike high/low
– They enter with the trend AFTER the fake-out is done
– They take profit at the first sign of slowing momentum
– They don’t try to catch every move
That’s 1-2 trades max. Maybe 3 if it’s a genuine trend day.
I know a guy who only trades NFP and he averages $400+ per report. One entry, one exit. Gone by 9am.
Meanwhile I’m fighting with the 1-minute chart until lunch trying to “get back to even.”
The Real Problem with NFP Trading Psychology
It’s not about the strategy. The strategy is simple. Wait for confirmation. Trade the real move. Take profit.
The problem is NFP activates something in my brain. It makes me think THIS time the first candle is the real move. THIS time I’ll catch the top tick. THIS time the whipsaw won’t happen.
It’s like convincing yourself the roulette wheel is “due” for black after 6 reds.
The market doesn’t care what you think is due.
For more on trading psychology and avoiding common mistakes, check out our other posts.
What I’m Going to Try (Again)
Today’s plan:
– Set an alarm for 8:35am EST (5 minutes AFTER the print)
– Don’t even look at the chart until then
– If ES or NQ shows a clear retest and holds? One entry.
– If it’s choppy nonsense? Close the platform and go make coffee.
Will I actually do this? Probably not.
But maybe writing it down publicly will shame me into following my own rules for once.
If you see a post next week titled “Why I Overtrade NFP (Lesson #48)” you’ll know how it went.
What’s your worst NFP trading experience? Be honest. We’ve all got one where we knew better but did it anyway.
Learn more about NFP trading strategies from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (the official source for employment data).